As the Americans withdraw from Afghanistan, other nations are scrambling to fill the void and secure their interests in the war-torn country. Both the Afghan government and the Taliban are reaching out to foreign contacts for support. Other states, especially neighboring ones, are struggling to decide whether and how to support the Afghan government and how to mitigate the gains of the Taliban.
Whatever their relations with the United States, most countries agree that terrorism is the primary concern in the wake of the American withdrawal. All of the nearby powers have experienced terrorism in some form or another. Russia has fought wars in the Caucasus against terrorism; India is familiar with attacks by Pakistani terrorist groups; China justifies its brutal Xinjiang policies as counterterrorism; and Iran, despite funding other terror groups, is concerned over Daesh, or ISIS.
Bruno Macaes argues that this chaotic rush following the withdrawal may turn Afghanistan into a Syrian-style country ruled by different states and groups but dominated by none. Although obviously unfortunate for Afghanistan, this would be a bad outcome for nearby countries, especially for for a country like China, whose next moves in Afghanistan are being closely watched.
President Joe Biden said that the United States’ competition with China is a reason for the American retreat from Afghanistan. Yet some have suggested the withdrawal is a gift to China, which could build strong economic ties with Afghanistan as it has with Pakistan and Iran. The Taliban have already reached out to the Chinese, calling China a “friend” and offering security guarantees for Chinese businesses. Words from the Taliban aren’t worth much, though, and everyone, including China, knows this. In remarks this week from neighboring Tajikistan, a country friendly to the Afghan government, Yi stated that the Taliban needs to end its support of terrorism and praised the Afghan government. All interested governments are watching and waiting to see the results of the withdrawal, refusing to either go on the offensive against the Taliban or support the group. It’s hard to do anything else when it comes to Afghanistan.
As a matter of statecraft, it is interesting to observe how other countries are filling in the gaps left by NATO and the United States in Afghanistan. The United Arab Emirates has offered air support to the Afghan Air Force. Although a NATO member, Turkey will independently control the Kabul Airport. Tajikistan is taking in Afghan refugees and ordering reservists to secure its border with Afghanistan. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia will protect Tajikistan from the Taliban and terrorist forces from its military base inside the country. The Afghan government continues to lambast Pakistan’s support of the Taliban.
Without unity within its borders, Afghanistan won’t be deciding its future. Other countries—except the United States—will.
Image Credit: https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-war-afghanistan; Bob Strong/Reuters