Learning from the Russia-Ukraine War
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine teaches us a few lessons about international relations.
It’s been about two weeks since Russia launched its most recent invasion of Ukraine. Although still a bit early to be definitive, we can learn and predict a few things about world politics.
NATO and the United States have appeared incapable on the military front. Secretary of State Antony Blinken indicated that U.S. military intervention may lead to a Russia-U.S. conflict. The recent back-and-forth over whether Poland would transfer MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine shows that Poland, Germany, the United States, and NATO don’t want to touch Ukraine with a 100-foot pole, at least when it comes to anything military-related.
It’s clearly economic warfare at all levels between Russia and Western countries. The West has been a little more united on the economic front, banning some Russian banks from SWIFT and cutting off the Nordstream2 pipeline between Russia and Germany. But as far as I’m aware, only the UK and the USA have banned Russian oil imports— not Germany or the EU. It’s unclear how long the sanctions and restrictions will remain in place. The announcements of ending exports, contracts, and operations from private Western companies, including Volvo, BP, Shell, IKEA, and many others, were surprising. These moves are possible because Russia has little economic leverage outside of oil. It’s clearly economic warfare at all levels, and it will increase Chinese-Russian cooperation and interoperability. It will also probably make non-Western countries concerned about economic interdependence with the West. Most countries outside the West, including India, don’t want in on the economic pressure. The West has not yet attempted a comparable level of pressure on China because, unlike Russia, China has greater economic leverage over the West.
Ukraine will lose the war and a new security order will be imposed. President Zelenksy has realized that although the West has supported him with only words and economic sanctions, it’s provided little when it comes to the military support that would change the outcome of the war or negotiations. As a result, he’s already preparing for the eventual talks with the Russians. On the President of Ukraine’s website is the following:
According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in the future Ukraine must have a collective security agreement with all its neighbors and with the participation of the world’s leading countries - the United States, France, Germany and Turkey, with which our country borders in the Black Sea.
"These will be guarantees not only for Ukraine. These will be guarantees for Russia as well, about which it is constantly talking…
…As for the demands put forward by the Russian authorities, in particular regarding the recognition of the independence of the occupied territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the Head of State noted that a compromise is possible on this point.
"It is important to me how people who want to be part of Ukraine will live there. I am interested in the opinion of those who see themselves as citizens of the Russian Federation. However, we must discuss this issue. As well as compromises on Crimea. We cannot recognize that Crimea is the territory of Russia. I think it will be difficult for Russia to recognize that this is the territory of Ukraine.”
The reality of the conflict is much bleaker than we’d like to think, but learning a few lessons could help U.S. foreign policy in the days ahead.
Image: Tyler Hicks / The New York Times